Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Midterm Elections

Served as interlocutor (basically moderator) of a video-link lecture on the midterm elections, given by Jim Thurber from American University. He predicted that the Democrats would capture a slim majority in the House, but not the Senate. Judging from the various handicappers in the punditocracy (Charlie Cook, National Journal, etc.), this looks about right.

The Iowa Electronic Market, a futures market that is pretty accurate as the collective wisdom of people who have money on the line, shows about a 40% chance of the GOP keeping a House majority, a 55% chance of a Democratic takeover, and a 5% chance of a Republican House gain (I wouldn't take bet, even at 20-1).


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